Analyzing Albertans' Alternatives

Analyzing  Albertans'  Alternatives  -  for the future

Also see "my 40 seconds of anonymous fame" on YouTube
where I summarize some of Alberta's Alternatives. 

(I appear between 1:17 and 1:57) 



Read more on the following options:

1.  Stay within Canada. 
2.  Open negotiations to form a new country with British Columbia.
3.  Open negotiations to join the United States of America.
4.  Open negotiations to form a new country with Saskatchewan. 
5.  Open negotiations to form a new country with Saskatchewan and
       Manitoba.
6.  Open negotiations to form a new country encompassing all 4 western
       provinces – British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchwan and Manitoba.
7.  Open negotiations simultaneously with all parties.
8.  The options described above only scratch the surface. 

Why go through this exercise? 
A lot – quite possibly a majority – of Albertans are trying to convince the rest of Canada that pipelines are required for the continued stability and prosperity of not only Albertans, but Canadians as a whole.  This has not been working well.  The evidence is in the news.  Pipelines cancelled – even though pipelines are being built and used elsewhere in North America.  And pipelines that are “indefinite.”  Carbon taxes are being forced on some but not others.  Low investment and low margins for Albertans’ exports are threatening to put Albertans out of business (and out of jobs) in the long run.  This situation has dire consequences. 
But through all of this, we must remember that we are free to choose our collective future as Albertans in Alberta.  The late and great Edgar “Peter” Lougheed said it himself:  “You will determine whether or not you want to see more and more of your lives directed and controlled in Ottawa OR whether you want to see a fair portion of the decision-making determined by Albertans in Alberta…”
Look - we have options when we buy a house or look for a job.  Some people, I am told, are always looking for a better job and conversely employers are always looking for their next star employee.  They keep their options open.  This is key.  Any good negotiator will tell you that there is no negotiation unless each party has options.  Otherwise there is nothing to negotiate – If one party says, “here’s our offer – take it or leave it,” this still gives us options.  If they say, “Here’s what we are going to take from you – you must hand it over now,” – and you comply - knowing no other options.  This is not a negotiation, but a surrender.  You might loudly and vigorously complain, but you comply anyway, because – and this is very important – you “know of no other options.”  So the first step in any negotiation is to list all our options no matter what you initially think of them.  Why?  There comes a point when each option works better than your current circumstances.

Here is just a summary of just some options Albertans have:

1.  Stay within Canada. 
Continue to cede all important decisions to others – other Canadians – that live almost 4000 km away from Alberta.  What are these important decisions?  One is where Albertans’ federal tax dollars are spent and the other is whether Albertans can efficiently and effectively sell their resources for their own benefit.  Basically, Albertans would continue to work within a system “rigged” against them for the benefit of others.  For more on "rigged", read:  https://jaybortnik.blogspot.com/2019/05/canada-is-rigged.html


2.  Open negotiations to form a new country with British Columbia.
I know, I know, Albertans aren’t happy with BC’s leadership “right now”, but they still have a lot in common with the people of BC.   Alberta would have “unqualified” access to the Pacific Ocean.  BC would stay attached to an economic powerhouse. Remember, before all of the pipeline difficulties, Alberta and BC signed an agreement called TILMA (click here to find out about it).  Also remember that Canada has always had a huge desire to have a country that goes all the way to the Pacific Ocean.  Losing just the “geography of Alberta” – never mind its federal tax money - from Canadian control could cause significant change (and needed change) in the rest of Canada.

3.  Open negotiations to join the United States of America.
Yeah I know there are some anti-America people out there, but Alberta has a lot of American connections.  85% of all of Alberta’s yearly international exports are sold to the United States.  Alberta’s oil and gas industry was developed by American companies.  These companies are still big players in Alberta’s oil industry.  American settlers also settled in the early stages of Alberta.  The advantage is obvious – unfettered access to the biggest market in the world.  The disadvantage is equally obvious – trading one confederation (that makes it possible to legally leave) and replacing it with a union (that is said to be “indivisible”).

4.  Open negotiations to form a new country with Saskatchewan. 
Did you know that Alberta and Saskatchewan were “expected” to become one province?  However, just before they became provinces, Prime Minister Laurier – thought that that would make a province too powerful.   So he split them up. The main disadvantage to focusing only on Saskatchewan is that it does not solve the question of being “landlocked”.  However, there are countries in the world that are “landlocked” – Switzerland is a good example.  They are landlocked and have decided against joining the European Union (look it up – there is another surprising country that is not part of the EU either).  So being “landlocked” is not as big an issue as it is made out to be.

5.  Open negotiations to form a new country with Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  This new country would have access to “tidewater” at Hudson Bay. For 200 years before Canada, ships came into Hudson Bay to access what is now Northern Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. The country is resource rich with oil, natural gas, and agriculture.  Over 6.6 million people (the 108th largest country in the world by population with almost 200 countries in the world) would inhabit this new country.  It would have an area of almost 2 million square kilometers – making it almost twice the size of Ontario with way more “inhabited” land area.  It would also make this the 14th largest country by area in the world.

6.  Open negotiations to form a new country encompassing all 4 western provinces – British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchwan and Manitoba.
This new country would have easy access to both the Pacific and the Atlantic through Hudson Bay.  As well, with the addition of BC, it would be even richer in natural gas as well as international business opportunities.  This new country would have over 11 million people (the 81st largest country in the world by population).  Remember that by 1931, Canada had about 10 million people with an area 5 times larger than this new country.  In that same year, the British Parliament passed the Statute of Westminster, giving Canada control over its foreign and domestic policy.  Canadian independence from Britain was finalized.  Independence for this new country would be legally easier thanks to the continued struggles of Quebecers (Something positive from the referendum of the 1990s).

7.  Open negotiations simultaneously with all parties.
Alberta is now the “linchpin” of Canada or the “pin” that holds the “wheel” of Western Canada to the axel of Canada.  And in recent years, Alberta has also become a major part of the economic engine of Canada.  The rest of Canada not only needs Albertans’ money, it also needs their territory to be within Canada.  Two major railways cross Alberta linking the country together.  We have been told that without these railways, Canada ceases to exist.  The railways will still exist in an independent Alberta.  It is just that Alberta, as a sovereign country can now exercise control over “movement of goods and people” through the major transportation routes that link this country together.  Negotiation can now happen if Albertans assume an “independence” posture.  Right now the rest of Canada has “nothing to lose” while Alberta has “everything to lose”.  With an “independent outlook”, Albertans can pursue the best deal with any combination of its 4 closest neighbours.  It doesn’t mean Albertans have to do any deal with any single neighbour either.  It also means that we stop wanting and saying “they have to do this or that”.  Albertans become the writers of their own future through “civil” negotiations with all interested parties.  And believe me, they will all be very interested.

8.  The options described above only scratch the surface. 
Negotiations can also include independence with preferred economic relations with any number of neighbours.  The options then become almost endless for Alberta.


For some reasons why we should:

And read...

Jay Bortnik's 
Alberta Trivia? 

for December 2018



Comments

Unknown said…
Good stuff, Jay!
"unknown" Thank you for your comment.
We greatly appreciate your feed back.